Friday, February 1, 2008

Where Does The San Antonio Real Estate Market Stand Entering 2008?

At the end of 2007, the San Antonio real estate market remained one of the stronger markets in the US. It was not significantly affected by the backlash from the sub-prime lending fiasco, and held true to the forecasts for population and job growth--and appreciation in home values. Forecasts for future growth and steady appreciation in housing values appear good for 2008 as well. The forecasts and news reports were however varied, and deserve closer scrutiny.

While local news reports placed appreciation rates at 6%, the Top 25 US Markets and Texas Real Estate Markets pages of Housing Predictor are in my estimation more reliable. The likely flaw in the reporting is the statistical measure used in the report, median prices. It does not account for the trend in demand for larger houses over the past several years or the subsequent response by builders to meet that demand. As these larger homes are resold, the effect will be to skew measures based solely on prices in the overall market. By my own estimate, based on sampling the sales of existing homes, appreciation rates over the past year held to 5% overall.

The Housing Predictor real estate market forecast for San Antonio places it at #21 in the top 25 appreciating markets in the US again in 2008, and up to #5 from #6 in Texas. Population growth in Texas is forecast to remain strong through 2030, and especially in San Antonio. Over the past year, other forecasts for the San Antonio market placed it from a low of 7th in the nation on HomeVestors and 6th on's list of best U.S. housing markets to the number one real estate investment city by NuWire Investors.

What ever the real numbers may be, home owners in San Antonio can celebrate the new year with the assurance that the general malaise in the market had little affect on their home values, and look forward to ongoing benefit from the strength of their housing market.

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